Calgary Real Estate Market Shows Resilience Amid Alberta’s Growth

While in-migration, immigration and employment opportunities have accelerated overall population growth in the city between 1994 and 2024, a 16-per-cent upswing in new residents during the pandemic propelled homes sales and values to new heights. That, in combination with a recovery of the oil and gas sector and the government’s 2022 Alberta is Calling ad campaign, which offered financial incentives for eligible skilled trade workers relocating to the province, created a vibrant home-buying market, particularly in Calgary.

Housing market conditions in the city have since moderated, in large part due to a slowdown in out-of-province buyers, higher average prices, stagnant interest rates and a lack of substantial government incentives for first-time homebuyers. Broader economic headwinds such as U.S. tariffs, job concerns and overall uncertainty, have contributed to the more subdued marketplace. Despite these challenges, certain segments continue to experience strength. Entry-level and move-up buyers remain active in the $400,000 to $600,000 price range, stimulating sales of lower-end townhomes, two-storey starter homes and duplexes.

Retiring Baby Boomers and younger buyers are looking to make their moves, with both seeking single-storey bungalow properties with a garage priced at $800,000 and located in the city’s north end. While a plethora of two-storey properties are currently available for sale, there are five that match those criteria. Exacerbating the high demand and short supply of bungalow product is the choice of most existing homeowners to stay put, for now.

Inventory levels overall have risen in the city, with a solid selection of housing product available at all price points. Average price in Calgary topped $600,000 for the first time in 2024 — an increase of 344.7 per cent over 1994 levels and a compounded annual growth rate of 5.1 per cent. While affordability remains strong in the province, there has been considerable downward pressure on demand for condominiums, with buyers opting for freehold properties without monthly fees. Some buyers are moving to smaller communities outside of Calgary, where their dollars stretch further.

According to TD Economics’ Provincial Economic Forecast, Alberta is expected to fare better than most regions in 2025, thanks in large part to the Transmountain Pipeline Expansion. Although concerns exist regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs, oil and gas have been spared somewhat, with an estimated 85 per cent of oil and gas exports flowing tariff-free to the US. Oil prices, however, continue to put a damper on the market, with a sub-US $70 oil price, while investment spending in the province has also slowed as well.

Looking ahead, Calgary’s housing market is poised to navigate the evolving economic landscape with resilience. While challenges such as U.S. tariffs, job concerns and fluctuating oil prices persist, the city’s diverse housing inventory and strong demand in specific segments provide a solid foundation for continued growth. The positive economic outlook for Alberta, bolstered by the Transmountain Pipeline Expansion, further supports the market’s potential. As Calgary adapts to these conditions, it remains well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and maintain its appeal to both local and out-of-province buyers.