The average residential sale price in Simcoe County has decreased by 3.3 per cent across all property types between 2024 and 2025 from $822,976 to $795,615. The number of sales transactions decreased by 6.8 per cent for the same time period (from 7,183 to 6,698). The total number of listings increased by 11.1 per cent (from 21,437 in 2024 to 23,815 in 2025).
Trends in the Simcoe County Housing Market
Average residential sale prices will rise by four per cent going into 2026, compared to 2025. Sales are anticipated to rise by ten per cent going into 2026, compared to 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, Simcoe County is expected to be a balanced market. Strong demand from first-time buyers, driven by high rental costs and low vacancy rates, combined with continued interest from investors seeking cash-flow positive properties, is keeping competition high. Limited housing inventory and municipal regulations further constrain supply, reinforcing favorable conditions for sellers despite potential fluctuations in interest rates.
In 2026, single detached homes are expected to be the most sought-after type of housing in the region. These homes typically offer more space, privacy, and often outdoor areas, making them appealing to a wide range of buyers. The expectation of "strong demand" indicates that more people will want to buy these homes compared to other housing types such as townhouses or condos. Similarly, "sales activity" being high means these homes are likely to change hands more frequently, signaling a highly active market segment.
Looking ahead to 2026, distinct buying and selling trends are emerging across different segments of the market. First-time homebuyers are primarily focused on properties priced below $600,000, seeking affordability and entry into homeownership. Move-up and move-over buyers are considering the sale of their existing homes to access larger or better-suited properties. Retirees continue to favour more efficient, single-level living arrangements that balance comfort with low maintenance. Meanwhile, new-home construction activity will depend on developer appetite and market conditions.
Several trends point to a potential rebound in the region in 2026. First-time buyers have been particularly active, signaling renewed interest and confidence among new entrants to the market. Coupled with easing affordability pressures and ongoing demand for single detached homes, sales activity could strengthen in the year ahead. Additionally, broader economic indicators, including employment stability, will further support a measured recovery in housing demand.
Elevated rental prices are influencing the decisions of first-time buyers, encouraging many to consider purchasing a home sooner rather than continuing to rent. With the cost of renting remaining high, buying property is looking more attractive and financially viable option for many, motivating new buyers to explore the region despite broader affordability challenges. Many investors remain cautious due to restrictions on long-term rentals and short-term platforms such as Airbnb, which limit potential returns. While high rental rates could make investment properties attractive, regulatory constraints are inhibiting investor activity.
Looking to 2026, buyers can expect a favourable combination of more ample inventory, reasonable pricing with accessible financing options, making it an opportune time to enter the market. Buyer confidence also remains a critical driver of activity. Declining interest rates are expected to boost market momentum by improving affordability and encouraging more buyers to enter the market. Conversely, any increase in rates could temper demand, reinforcing the importance of stable financial conditions. Overall, the first half of the year will likely to be shaped by how rates change, with buyers and sellers closely monitoring lending costs when making purchasing and listing decisions.
The most important factor currently affecting local housing market conditions is broader economic uncertainty. The Alliston Honda plant, a major local employer, is a specific point of contention, as any disruptions there could in turn affect housing demand. Other segments, including rental and luxury housing, may also see notable trends, with affordability pressures continuing to drive interest in rentals and high-end buyers seeking well-located properties.
Policy measures are expected to influence housing activity in the region in 2026, particularly programs aimed at supporting first-time buyers. Incentives for new homeowners such as the HST exemption could further improve affordability for buyers. Targeted measures that reduce upfront costs and improve access to financing are likely to have the most immediate impact on buyer activity in the year ahead.
Technologically, online tools have reduced the need for in-person showings. Virtual tours, listing platforms and even social media enable prospective buyers to view and evaluate properties remotely, helping them narrow their options before coming in person. After a challenging year in 2025, the outlook for 2026 appears considerably more positive. Market conditions are expected to improve, with increased buyer confidence, more balanced inventory levels, and favourable financing options. While last year tested both buyers and sellers, the market is poised for greater activity.
