What’s Happening in the Canadian housing market this fall?
The REMAX Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook finds Canadians are changing where they look, what they buy and how they manage their finances, to make homeownership a reality
TL;DR
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National Trend: The Canadian housing market is cooling, characterized by softer sales volume in 81% of regions analyzed and a shift toward buyer-favourable or balanced conditions in 32% of local markets.
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Top Consumer Sacrifice: Rather than abandoning homeownership, 65% of buyers are making major trade-offs—most notably relocating up to an hour away for better affordability (63%) or cutting back on discretionary spending like dining out and travel (41%).
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Overall Price Direction: Home prices exhibit a modest, fragmented trajectory, rising moderately in 56% of markets while major metropolitan areas (such as the GTA and Greater Vancouver) see modest single-digit year-over-year price declines.
Homeownership remains a goal for Canadians, but affordability pressures are changing the path they are willing to take to get there, according to a new survey published in the REMAX Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook. Sixty-five per cent of respondents say they would make at least one compromise, such as reconsidering location or the type or condition of home they buy, to afford a larger or more suitable home, while 63 per cent would relocate to a home that better meets their needs.
Those choices are unfolding against a slower housing backdrop. According to data and insights supplied by REMAX brokers and agents surveyed for the report, home sales declined year over year in 81 per cent of markets analyzed between January 1 and July 31, 2026, while average residential prices increased in 56 per cent of markets.
Key Findings: REMAX Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook
Executive Summary: The REMAX Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook reveals that 65% of Canadians are willing to make compromises—such as relocating up to an hour away or buying an older home—to afford homeownership, while home sales fell year-over-year in 81% of analyzed markets.
- Willingness to Compromise: 65% of Canadians would compromise on property type, condition, or location to buy a suitable home.
- Relocation Trends: 63% would relocate for better suitability, including 47% willing to move up to 60 minutes away.
- Financial Sacrifices: 41% are willing to cut discretionary spending, while 24% would extend their mortgage amortization.
- Market Shift: 32% of housing markets analyzed sit firmly in buyer’s market territory, up from 15.2% last year, based on broker and agent outlooks.
What compromises are Canadian homebuyers making in 2026?
For many prospective buyers, the path to homeownership means reconsidering where they live, what they need in a home and how they manage their finances.
Location is one of the biggest areas of flexibility for Canadian homebuyers. Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents said they would relocate for a home that better meets their needs. Forty-seven per cent would move up to an hour from their current community, while another 16 per cent would move even farther. Thirty-one per cent would live farther from a city centre, and 21 per cent would live farther from shops, restaurants and other amenities. Buyers are also reconsidering properties themselves, with 20 per cent willing to purchase an older home or one requiring renovations.
The trade-offs extend beyond the home itself. Forty-one per cent of Canadians say they would cut discretionary spending such as travel and dining out to afford a home, while 24 per cent would extend their mortgage amortization period. Twenty per cent would accept financial help from family, and 17 per cent would take on a second job or additional income source, and another 17 per cent would delay retirement or other long-term savings.
Although many buyers are willing to compromise, some priorities remain fixed. Affordability remains the top consideration when choosing where to buy, cited by 60 per cent of respondents, followed by neighbourhood safety at 47 per cent.
• High-earners (55% earning $100K+ vs. 41% earning less)
• Those with children in the household (52% vs. 45% without children)
What is the Canadian housing market outlook for Fall 2026?
For buyers who can make a move, slower sales and greater choice in some markets can provide more time to compare properties and hold firm on their most important priorities.
According to data supplied by REMAX brokers and agents, home sales declined year over year in 81 per cent of markets analyzed, while average residential prices increased in 56 per cent of markets. Buyer-favourable conditions are also more widespread than anticipated heading into the year, with 32 per cent of markets analyzed expected by REMAX brokers and agents to sit firmly in buyers’ territory this fall.
The softer sales environment has been more pronounced than anticipated heading into the year, with REMAX Canada’s fall outlook adjusted to sales finishing approximately two per cent below 2025 levels, based on expectations provided by REMAX brokers and agents.
“The market has not become easy for buyers, but in many regions, it is allowing for a more deliberate purchasing process,” says Kottick. “That matters for people who are already rethinking location, property type or condition to make the numbers work. More time and choice can help buyers compare their options and understand where their budget goes further without feeling like they have to compromise.”
Western Canada Overview
| MARKET | YEAR-END 2026 AVG. PRICE ESTIMATE* ($, % CHANGE) | MARKET TYPE* |
|---|---|---|
| Greater Vancouver Area, BC | $1,406,305 (-2.1%) | Buyer’s |
| Kelowna, BC | $734,656 (0.0%) | Buyer’s |
| Calgary, AB | $543,875 (-5.0%) | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Edmonton, AB | $484,768 (2.0%) | Balanced |
| Saskatoon, SK | $479,431 (6.0%) | Seller’s |
| Winnipeg, MB | $488,048 (1.0%) | Balanced |
Ontario Overview
| MARKET | YEAR-END 2026 AVG. PRICE ESTIMATE* ($, % CHANGE) | MARKET TYPE* |
|---|---|---|
| Windsor, ON | $564,329 (-2.0%) | Balanced |
| Grand Bend, ON | $1,048,643 (8.0%) | Buyer’s |
| London, ON | $590,946 (-2.0%) | Balanced |
| Kitchener-Waterloo, ON | $702,722 (-5.0%) | Buyer’s |
| Oakville, ON | $1,468,811 (1.0%) | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Greater Toronto Area, ON | $975,436 (-5.5%) | Buyer’s |
| York Region, ON | $1,020,052 (-3.0%) | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Niagara, ON | $597,968 (-6.0%) | Buyer’s |
| Kingston, ON | $644,691 (1.0%) | Buyer’s |
| Ottawa, ON | $695,849 (-0.5%) | Balanced/Buyer’s |
| Sudbury, ON | $530,387 (0.0%) | Seller’s |
| North Bay, ON | $458,879 (-1.7%) | Buyer’s |
| Thunder Bay, ON | $424,944 (0.0%) | Seller’s |
| Kenora, ON | $628,261 (0.0%) | Seller’s |
Atlantic Canada Overview
| MARKET | YEAR-END 2026 AVG. PRICE ESTIMATE* ($, % CHANGE) | MARKET TYPE* |
|---|---|---|
| Fredericton, NB | $384,304 (2.0%) | Balanced |
| Saint John, NB | $380,393 (3.0%) | Seller’s |
| Moncton, NB | $380,532 (-1.0%) | Balanced |
| Charlottetown, PEI | $403,500 (-1.5%) | Buyer’s |
| Truro/Colchester, NS | $379,172 (1.0%) | Balanced |
| Halifax, NS | $604,772 (0.0%) | Balanced |
| St. John’s Metro, NL | $463,126 (10.0%) | Seller’s |
*Outlooks are estimates provided by REMAX brokers and agents. REMAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transactions in each region. Each REMAX office is independently owned and operated. Responses are meant to capture industry-level information and are not meant to serve as an indication of Real REMAX Group’s company-specific growth trends.
Historical values are sourced from CREA or Local Board statistics. Estimates and forecasts are based on the opinion of independent REMAX broker/owners and affiliates. Your use or reliance on the information above is at your own risk. The information is provided without any warranties of any kind, either express or implied. Neither REMAX nor any person associated with REMAX makes any warranty or representation with respect to the completeness, quality, or accuracy of the information. To the fullest extent permitted by law, REMAX hereby disclaims all warranties of any kind, whether express or implied, statutory, or otherwise, including but not limited to any warranties of non-infringement and fitness for a particular purpose. REMAX also disclaims any responsibility for the content, materials, accuracy of the information, and/or quality of the information provided. For more information, visit remax.ca.
How are government policy measures affecting Canadian home buyers?
Canadians are adjusting their purchase strategies as government affordability measures deliver mixed results. Three-quarters of Canadians are aware of the federal first-time home buyers’ GST/HST rebate. Overall, 45 per cent say it is helping some buyers, while 16 per cent say it is making homeownership more attainable for first-time buyers. Fourteen per cent say the rebate has influenced their own purchase plans.
In a separate survey, REMAX Broker/Owners and agents report a similar experience on the ground: the rebate is a welcome benefit for qualifying buyers but is mostly helping those who were already close to purchasing rather than bringing large numbers of new buyers into the market. Its impact is also limited in communities where new construction is scarce or priced beyond the reach of first-time buyers.
REMAX brokers and agents report an even more limited impact from the federal foreign homebuyer ban, which took effect on January 1, 2023, and is set to expire on January 1, 2027. In 79 per cent of the market responses, brokers said it has had little impact on affordability or new construction development. In a handful of markets, including Vancouver, brokers instead said the ban has reduced new construction activity without improving affordability. When asked what would make the biggest difference for first-time buyers, Canadians were most likely to choose “more affordable housing programs” and “lower mortgage interest rates,” at 21 per cent each, followed by “increasing housing supply” at 14 per cent.
“Canadians are showing that they’re prepared to adapt, but buyers can only control so much,” says Kottick. “Rebates and other measures can help, but affordability ultimately depends on a combination of factors, including supply, financing costs and having the right mix of housing available. Buyers are focused on decisions they can control but broader affordability challenges remain.”
Regional Housing Market Outlooks
How do housing market conditions differ across Canada in 2026? REMAX brokers and agents across Canada shared a year-over-year analysis of their local markets between January 1 and July 31, 2026, along with their outlook for the remainder of the year. Based on their insights, 25 per cent of markets are expected to favour sellers this fall, while 32 per cent are expected to sit firmly in buyers’ territory, with the remaining markets balanced or leaning toward buyers.
- Greater Vancouver remains firmly buyer-favourable.
- Calgary is experiencing split-market conditions.
- Saskatoon remains seller-favourable.
Conditions across Western Canada remain mixed. Sales declined year over year in every Western market analyzed, while prices moved in both directions. Average prices declined in Greater Vancouver, Central Okanagan and Calgary, while Edmonton, Saskatoon and Winnipeg posted gains.
Greater Vancouver remains firmly buyer-favourable, with weak demand continuing despite lower inventory and prices declining across most segments.
Calgary is seeing a split market: detached and semi-detached homes are generally balanced, while elevated condominium inventory has pushed that segment firmly into buyers’ territory. Greater Edmonton has shifted from a strong sellers’ market toward balance, giving buyers more choice, while Saskatoon remains seller-favourable despite softer sales.
- GTA remains a buyers’ market.
- Niagara continues to favour buyers.
- Thunder Bay remains seller-favourable.
Ontario continues to show some of the widest variation in the country, although buyer-friendly and balanced conditions dominate many of the larger markets analyzed.
The Greater Toronto Area remains a buyers’ market, with average residential prices down 5.1 per cent year over year and sales essentially flat. Kitchener-Waterloo is also buyer-favourable, with elevated inventory and greater negotiating power, while Ottawa remains balanced but is expected to move further in buyers’ favour. Niagara continues to favour buyers as well, with softer prices and activity strongest at more affordable price points.
Conditions look very different in parts of Northern Ontario. Thunder Bay remains a sellers’ market, where limited inventory helped push average prices up 10.5 per cent year over year, while Kenora also recorded strong price growth before moving toward more balanced conditions over the summer.
- Prices increased in every Atlantic market analyzed.
- St. John’s remains seller-favourable.
- Halifax has shifted to balanced conditions.
Atlantic Canada continues to show relative price resilience. Average residential prices increased year over year in every Atlantic market analyzed, even as sales declined across all of them.
Greater St. John’s remains a sellers’ market, supported by tight inventory, while Halifax, Truro-Colchester and Greater Moncton are now balanced as inventory gradually increases, and buyers gain more leverage. Fredericton is expected to move further toward buyers’ territory by the end of the year, while Charlottetown is already experiencing buyer-favourable conditions.
In Montreal, the market remains seller-favourable overall and is expected to remain so through year-end. Average prices and sales are expected to remain generally stable through the remainder of 2026, except in the condominium segment. Conditions vary by property, with some homes selling quickly while others require longer marketing periods or price adjustments. Buyers have also become more open to condominiums, smaller spaces and looking beyond their original search area.
2026 Canadian Homeownership Survey
What are Canadians saying about homeownership in 2026? Half of Canadians currently own their home, while only one in 10 plan to purchase one in the future. Meanwhile, two in 10 are renting and plan to continue to do so for the foreseeable future, and one in 10 doesn’t expect to be able to afford a new home for several years.
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Half of Canadians are willing to compromise on location, including 31 per cent who would live farther from the city and 21 per cent who would live farther from restaurants, shops, and other amenities.
Nearly half of Canadians (47 per cent) would move up to an hour to afford a home, while 16 per cent would move even farther. Younger Canadians (under 55) and BIPOC respondents are more likely to be willing to make compromises and relocate to afford a home.
Most Canadians (60%) rank affordability as the most important factor when choosing where to buy a home, followed by neighbourhood safety (47%). Affordability is more likely to be prioritized by Canadians aged 35+, while neighbourhood safety is more important to older Canadians (55+), higher-income Canadians ($100K+), and those with children under 18 in the household.
Awareness of the federal GST/HST rebate among prospective homebuyers is relatively high. Three-quarters of Canadians (75%) are aware of the rebate, although familiarity varies significantly. While 11% say they are very familiar with the program and 27% are somewhat familiar, another 37% have heard of it but do not know much about the details.
Six in 10 Canadians (61%) believe the rebate has an impact on homeownership. However, many view that impact as modest rather than transformative. The largest share of respondents (45%) say the rebate helps some first-time buyers but that the impact remains limited, while just 16% believe it is making homeownership meaningfully more attainable.
Despite fairly high awareness levels, only 14% of Canadians say the rebate has influenced their own home purchase plans. Most either are not planning to purchase a first home within the next five years (41%) or are not eligible for the rebate (20%), suggesting the program's reach may be constrained by broader affordability challenges and eligibility requirements.
Support for maintaining the foreign homebuyer ban significantly outweighs support for encouraging international investment. Nearly four in 10 Canadians (39%) say continuing the ban on foreign homebuyers and investors is more important, compared to just 10% who favour encouraging international investment to increase housing construction.
At the same time, more than a quarter of Canadians (27%) view both objectives as equally important, suggesting many Canadians see value in balancing housing affordability concerns with the need for additional investment and housing supply.
The findings indicate that Canadians remain focused on affordability pressures and housing access, while also recognizing that increasing housing supply may require a combination of policy tools, investment, and construction activity.
- Caucasian respondents (40% vs. 33% of BIPOC respondents)
- Suburban residents (44% vs. 36% of urban/rural residents)
- Men (14% vs. 7% of women)
- Ages 18–34 (19% vs. 7% of ages 35+)
- BIPOC respondents (18% vs. 8% of White respondents)
- Ontario residents (31% vs. 24% elsewhere)
- BIPOC respondents (35% vs. 25% of White respondents)
Canadians are divided on which affordability solutions would have the greatest impact for first-time homebuyers. The most commonly cited solutions are more affordable housing programs (21%) and lower mortgage interest rates (21%), followed by increasing the supply of homes (14%).
Financial assistance also remains a consideration for many prospective buyers. 10% believe greater availability of down payment assistance would have the biggest impact, while 8% point to changes in mortgage qualification rules and 7% support larger tax rebates or financial incentives.
The findings suggest that Canadians are looking for a mix of solutions that address both affordability and access. While lower borrowing costs remain important, there is also strong support for longer-term measures that expand housing options and reduce barriers to entering the market.
Frequently Asked Questions: Canadian Housing Market Outlook
What is the outlook for the Canadian housing market? +
The Canadian housing market is shifting toward buyer-favourable conditions, with 32% of regional markets operating in buyer's territory. Overall national sales are expected to finish approximately 2% below previous-year levels, according to information provided by REMAX brokers and agents, offering buyers a more deliberate purchasing environment.
Will home prices fall in Canada in 2026? +
Home price trends vary by region. When surveyed, REMAX brokers and agents said major metropolitan markets like Greater Vancouver (-2.1%) and Greater Toronto (-5.5%) are expected to experience average residential price declines by year-end, while regional markets such as Saskatoon (+6.0%) and St. John's Metro (+10.0%) expect price gains.
Is Canada currently a buyer's or seller's real estate market? +
The market is increasingly favoring buyers. Approximately 32% of analyzed Canadian markets are in firm buyer's territory (up from 15.2% last year), with slower overall sales allowing buyers more time and negotiating leverage.
How does the First-Time Home Buyers' GST rebate impact homebuyers? +
While 75% of Canadians are aware of the federal First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST rebate, 45% say it provides partial help, and 16% report it makes homeownership significantly more attainable. On the ground, it primarily assists buyers who were already close to purchasing.
What compromises are Canadian homebuyers willing to make, to be able to buy a home? +
To achieve homeownership, 65% of Canadians say they would compromise on location or home type—including 47% willing to move up to an hour away from their community—while 41% would cut discretionary spending to afford a home.
About Leger
An online survey of 1,532 Canadians aged 18 and older was completed between July 17 and 19, 2026, using Leger’s LEO panel. Results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error no greater than +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About the Report
REMAX’s Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook includes data and insights supplied by REMAX brokerages. REMAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transactions in each region. Each REMAX office is independently owned and operated. Responses are meant to capture industry-level information and are not meant to serve as an indication of Real REMAX Group’s company-specific growth trends.
About the REMAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of Real REMAX Group (NASDAQ: REAX) with more than 145,000 agents in nearly 8,500 offices and a presence in more than 120 countries and territories. REMAX Canada refers to REMAX Canada, Inc., which is a subsidiary of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than REMAX, as measured by residential transaction sides. REMAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. REMAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.
Forward-Looking Statements
Some of the statements in this press release are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding the stock repurchase authorization. Forward-looking statements include all statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts, and can generally be identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “potential”, “project”, and similar expressions or future or conditional verbs such as “could”, “may”, “should”, “will” and “would”. These statements inherently involve numerous risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these statements. Where, in any forward-looking statement, Real REMAX Group expresses an expectation or belief as to future results or events, it is based on Real REMAX Group’s current plans and expectations, expressed in good faith and believed to have a reasonable basis. However, Real REMAX Group cannot give any assurance that any such expectation or belief as to future results will be achieved or accomplished. Significant risk factors that may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, slowdowns in real estate markets, economic and industry downturns; the inability to successfully integrate the companies; Real REMAX Group’s ability to attract and retain agents and franchisees; Real REMAX Group’s inability to successfully launch new products and features; Real REMAX Group’s inability to scale while improving operating leverage, or inability to successfully execute its strategies; possible unfavorable results in legal proceedings; changes in laws, regulations or the regulatory environment affecting our business; disruption to our technology or cybersecurity incidents; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in our reports filed with the SEC, as well as in legacy Real’s and legacy REMAX’s reports filed with the SEC, including legacy Real’s annual report on Form 40-F, reports on Form 6-K and other documents filed with the SEC, and legacy REMAX’s annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, reports on Form 8-K and other documents filed with the SEC, copies of which are available at www.sec.gov, and legacy Real’s reports filed with Canadian securities regulators, including legacy Real’s audited annual financial statements and annual management’s discussion and analysis for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, Annual Information Form dated March 4, 2026 and quarterly financial statements and quarterly management’s discussion and analysis for the period ended June 30, 2026, copies of which are available under legacy Real’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca.
SOURCE: REMAX Canada
