A broader sense of caution has continued to weigh on luxury housing activity across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), despite improved selection and greater negotiating room for buyers. Economic concerns and shifting consumer confidence have kept many purchasers on the sidelines, particularly at the upper end of the market where discretionary buying decisions are often more sensitive to volatility. As trade-up buyers gradually return, however, that activity could begin to set the ripple effect in motion.
Overall luxury sales over $3 million (freehold and condominium) were down almost 17 per cent in the GTA in the first four months of 2026, with 300 homes changing hands over the $3-million price point, compared to 361 during the same period in 2025. Sixty-two properties sold over $5 million, down marginally from the 63 sales reported last year. Drilling down into Toronto proper, homebuying activity at the $2-million to $3-million price point has edged slightly ahead of year-ago levels, with just over 400 sales of freehold and condominium properties posted between January and April of this year. The uptick in activity at lower prices is expected to spark some upward movement at the $3-million-plus price point, which is currently down 12 per cent year-over-year.
Luxury condominiums in Toronto’s core have fared somewhat better, with sales over $3 million on par with year ago levels, while the number of condos sold over $5 million have doubled, rising from two to four, with one sale well in excess of $10 million.
Momentum returning at select price points
Homebuying activity in the $5-million to $7.499-million-plus price bracket have moved ahead of last year’s levels in the 416 area code, with the number of homes sold climbing to 39 in the first four months of the year, up 5.4 per cent over the same period in 2025. Sales over $7.5 million are off year-ago levels by one unit, while sales over $10 million are on par with the first four months of 2025.
With the notable improvement in weather, inventory levels are expected to increase as the delayed spring market emerges. Some areas have reported shortages at particular price points, but that should improve with the anticipated influx of listings. Downward pressure on values at the top end of the market has left some would-be sellers reluctant to list their homes for sale, while the prospect of taking on additional debt remains unappealing given current economic and geopolitical tensions. Yet, life events continue to occur as families grow, shrink and evolve, ensuring there will always be active buyers and sellers.
Favourable conditions emerging for buyers
Those secure in their decision to move are now seeing some of the most favourable buying conditions in years. Prices have moderated, inventory levels have improved, bidding wars have eased and buyers once shut out of the market finally have room to negotiate. While economic uncertainty continues to dictate sentiment, opportunities do exist for purchasers willing to play the long game, especially in Toronto, where softer conditions at the upper end have created rare openings in traditionally supply-constrained areas.
The perennial favourites continue to top the list of most sought-after neighbourhoods in Central Toronto, with both Rosedale and Lawrence Park tied for first place with 20 sales over $3 million so far this year, while the Bridle Path, Sunnybrook and York Mills area ranked second with 14 sales. Forest Hill South rounded out the top three, with 11 sales. There were 31 sales overall in the city’s west end, with top-performing neighbourhoods including Kingsway South (9 sales) and neighbouring Edenbridge and Humber Valley (5 sales). Suburban markets including York Region recorded 35 sales, where Whitchurch-Stouffville emerged as one of the strongest-performing markets. Peel Region reported 24 sales in the first four months of the year, with half occurring in Mississauga’s Lorne Park and Mineola neighbourhoods.
Confidence expected to improve in 2027
While the GTA’s luxury housing market is expected to remain relatively measured through the balance of 2026, conditions are anticipated to gradually improve as consumer confidence returns and buyers re-enter the market. Many industry observers expect 2027 to represent a significant turning point, with improved affordability, greater economic stability and improved confidence helping to drive renewed activity across the housing sector. Toronto’s double land transfer tax structure, however, continues to present an obstacle, especially at entry-level luxury price points where closing costs can add tens of thousands of dollars to an already expensive transaction. In some cases, the additional tax burden is encouraging buyers to look beyond the city core to surrounding suburbs, where only the provincial land transfer tax applies.
Despite these challenges, the Greater Toronto Area continues to offer some of the country’s most prestigious and tightly held real estate, while remaining Canada’s largest business and financial centre. That enduring economic foundation, combined with the city’s global appeal, diverse economy and long-term population growth, is expected to continue supporting demand for luxury housing over time.
