GTA Real Estate: A Record-Setting Summer for the Durham Region

The Durham Region is in the dog days of summer, and the temperatures are heating up. But the latest real estate data may suggest that homebuyers are staying home and keeping cool in their air-conditioned abodes instead of house hunting. Is the Durham housing market melting faster than an ice cream cone on the streets of Oshawa and Pickering?

It is no secret that the red-hot Canadian real estate market has seen some cooling in recent months, and the latest figures suggest we may continue to shift back toward more “normal” levels throughout the second half of 2021. Demand exhaustion, buyer fatigue, a higher mortgage stress test, and housing affordability issues – there are many factors to explain the present situation unfolding after 18 months of record-setting gains.

But is the Durham housing market following the same patterns as the rest of the country? Let’s take a peek behind the curtain and find out what is happening across the local GTA real estate markets of Scugog, Uxbridge, Pickering, Ajax, Oshawa and Whitby.

GTA Real Estate: A Record-Setting Summer for the Durham Region

According to the Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR), residential sales declined at an annualised rate of 30 per cent in July, totaling 1,104 units. On a monthly basis, housing transactions fell 22 per cent.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price – which is considered to be a more accurate measure than average and median prices – advanced 31 per cent year-over-year in July to $844,500 in the Durham Region. But single-family detached properties recorded a double-digit gain, rising to more than $919,000.

What about listings and sales? New residential listings declined to 1,280 units for sale in July. Days on market sat at 11, while the number of months of inventory – which gauges the number of months it would take to liquidate current housing stock at the present rate of sales activity – was just 0.6 in July. Meanwhile, housing starts climbed in municipalities such as Oshawa and Whitby, within Durham Region, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“There is an increase of 28 per cent in average selling price in the Durham Region when compared to the price reported in July last year same time. We are seeing this decline in residential transactions due to inadequate new listings in the market,” said DRAR President Michael Watson in a news release.

“The increase of home sales is a consistent trend in the Durham region; however, we are seeing more and more people move to different regions within Ontario now that we are in Stage 3 of the Roadmap to Reopen. Durham Region is reporting significant numbers each month and setting records since the beginning of 2021 in sales making it a popular location for home buyers.”

Here is an in-depth look at how each market in the Durham housing sector performed year-over-year in July, based on figures from the TRREB MLS® system.

Ajax

• Average Price: +24.6% to $940,000
• Sales Volume: -29.14% to 158
• Active Listings: 80
• Days on Market: 10
• Housing Starts: 84

Clarington

• Average Price: +37.8% to $893,000
• Sales Volume: -32.6% to 200
• Active Listings: 101
• Days on Market: 10
• Housing Starts: 40

Oshawa

• Average Price: +29.15% to $784,000
• Sales Volume: -26.89% to 299
• Active Listings: 173
• Days on Market: 11
• Housing Starts: 289

Pickering

• Average Price: +16.92% to $981,000
• Sales Volume: -21% to 158
• Active Listings: 71
• Days on Market: 11
• Housing Starts: 84

Scugog

• Average Price: +12.05% to $976,000
• Sales Volume: -26.53% to 36
• Active Listings: 32
• Days on Market: 14
• Housing Starts: 22

Uxbridge

• Average Price: +44.85% to $1.282 million
• Sales Volume: -43.18% to 25
• Active Listings: 22
• Days on Market: 8
• Housing Starts: 2

Whitby

• Average Price: +33.86% to $1.004 million
• Sales Volume: -36.85% to 197
• Active Listings: 67
• Days on Market: 10
• Housing Starts: 159

What’s Next for the Durham Real Estate Market?

Overall, it is clear that Durham is at the forefront of gains in the GTA real estate market. Be it Uxbridge or Whitby, Durham has turned into one of the hottest housing sectors in the Ontario real estate industry. The industry consensus is that the Durham marketplace will continue to be “very active, and the Toronto Region Real Estate Board (TRREB) believes that newcomers will ultimately test the GTA housing sector.

“There is a huge backlog of people seeking citizenship or permanent resident status in Canada (and) a large share of these newcomers will ultimately choose to call the GTA home,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele in an interview with insauga.com. “This means ownership and rental market conditions will remain tight with upward pressure on prices for the foreseeable future.”

But not only will immigration levels test the Durham Region real estate market. Potential interest rate hikes, mortgage stress tests, and a return to in-person working arrangements could become critical factors in the area heading into the fall and winter home-buying seasons. For now, it remains to be seen if the housing affordability crisis will intensify in a place where, traditionally, young families and first-time homebuyers sought to achieve the Canadian dream at a lower cost.

Sources:

• CREA
• John Owen
• CMHC
• com