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The average sale price in the Oakville housing market decreased by 4.1 per cent between 2022 and 2023 (from $1,760,869 in 2022 to $1,688,542 in 2023), while the number of sales transactions decreased by 13.8 per cent (from 1,404 in 2022 1,210 in 2023). Oakville is currently a seller’s market, with some experiencing more balanced conditions based on inventory levels. This is likely to continue into 2024. Oakville could expect to see a seven per cent increase in average residential prices and an increase of up to 14.5 per cent in the number of sales transactions by end of 2024. 

The top three neighbourhoods likely to be the most desirable in Oakville next year are Bronte, Central, and Old Oakville. All three areas boast key liveability features such as GO train/transportation access, and proximity to shopping and waterfront areas, and all three areas score high for walkability. Walkability is identified as a core liveability factor desired by buyers in the region, especially coming out of the pandemic.

Lack of inventory is the core issue affecting the City’s housing market heading into 2024. Oakville’s five-month inventory is extremely low; however, unlike other regions in Canada, the city is not seeing the same widespread pressures on inventory due to immigration. If anything, the north of the city is sought after by newcomers, where there’s a greater density of affordable housing options like semi-detached homes, townhomes, and low-rise condos. 

 Likewise with the increased cost of borrowing and homes in the first-time buyer’s segment under $1M becoming scarce, first-time buyers are looking to alternative ways to buy in Oakville like co-ownership with family. 

“If inventory levels continue to decrease throughout the winter, which, we’re anticipating it will, then prices will likely increase because of supply and demand. If you combine low inventory with softening of interest rates for variable and fixed mortgages as forecast for mid-2024, we could see prices increase,” says Lynn Hoffmann, Broker/Manager, Escarpment Realty Inc. “Consumers will feel confident to purchase, but they won’t have all the inventory they want. Given this, the market is expected to continue to trend as a seller’s market in 2024.” 

Top Trends: 

  • Oakville is likely to remain a seller’s market in 2024. 
  • Rising interest rates and inventory shortages are the top two trends impacting the market. 
  • While there aren’t currently many new construction developments, those that are underway are being delayed due rising borrowing costs, materials costs and overall materials shortages. 
  • Single-detached homes, particularly bungalows, are likely to see the greatest demand in 2024. 
  • Oakville’s luxury and move-up buyers are faring well in the market, despite rising interest rates and inventory shortages. Especially those looking within the $3M-$10M price range. 
  • To manage rising costs, many young buyers in Oakville are going-in on homes with family members or renting longer than expected. 

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About the RE/MAX Network 
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides. 

RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca. 

Forward looking statements  
This report includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe harbour” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words such as “believe,” “intend,” “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “outlook,” “project,” and other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company’s results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management’s good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company’s business, the Company’s ability to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the Company’s ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company’s franchisees’ ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company’s ability to enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company’s ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and similar disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the Company’s website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances. 

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Oakville real estate could shift from seller’s market in 2021

The Oakville housing market has seen average residential prices rise and inventory dwindle in 2020, which has been a common trend across many Ontario housing markets, resulting in rising prices. But Oakville homebuyers could be in for some relief, with the current seller’s market potentially beginning to transition into more balanced territory in 2021.

Oakville House prices expected to rise 5%

The region saw average home prices rise to $1,169,468 in 2020 (Jan. 1-Oct. 31) compared to $1,026,539 in 2019 (Jan. 1-Dec. 31). Low inventory is expected to be a major concern that will continue to have a direct impact on home availability and prices next year. Furthermore, low interest rates expected to hold steady in 2021 are likely to keep buyer demand high. Thus, the RE/MAX outlook for the Oakville housing market is an increase of 5% in average price to approximately $1,227,941 across all property types.

Oakville currently has two to three months of housing inventory available.

Oakville housing market outlook 2021

Who’s driving the Oakville housing market?

After a year of supply challenges, move-up buyers are expected to drive the market in 2021, pushing up prices. In 2020, home-buying hesitation was not particularly relevant despite economic challenges, with first-time homebuyers continuing to move ahead with purchases, predominantly condos in the $400,000 to $600,000 price range. Oakville’s condominium market moved at the same sale and purchase pace as detached homes, and this is expected to continue in 2021. This is in contrast to the dip in condo activity experienced in neighbouring Mississauga, and even more pronounced in downtown Toronto.

Meanwhile, the luxury market was not significantly impacted by the pandemic, driven by move-up buyers and starting at $3 million. Activity is expected to continue at its current pace in 2021.

The hottest neighbourhoods in Oakville, based on 2020 sales, are Glen Abbey, River Oaks and South East Oakville. Properties in highest demand include condominiums, two-story detached homes, townhomes and luxury properties – a wide range of housing types that speaks to the high demand for housing in the area.

Canadian Housing Market in 2021

Canadians are on the move. RE/MAX isn’t calling this an “exodus,” but the re-location trend across the Canadian housing market is real, and it’s just one focus of the RE/MAX 2021 Housing Market Outlook Report. RE/MAX Canada anticipates healthy housing price growth at the national level, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing and widespread housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for homebuyers and putting upward pressure on prices.

Due to these factors, the 2021 RE/MAX 2021 outlook for average residential prices is an estimate of +4% to +6% nation-wide. Here’s the regional break-down:

Canadian Housing Market Outlook REMAX 2021 Data Table

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Additional report findings include:

  • 35% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that “move-over” buyers from other cities and provinces will continue to spark market activity in 2021
  • 45% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that move-up buyers will likely be a primary driver of the housing market demand in 2021
  • Half of Canadians (53%) are confident that Canada’s housing markets will remain steady in 2021
  • 52% of Canadians believe real estate will remain one of the best investment options in 2021

“We’ve seen a lot of anecdotal evidence since the summer that households are considering significant lifestyle changes by relocating to less-dense cities and neighbourhoods,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “This has sparked unprecedented sales this year in suburban and rural parts of Canada and we expect this trend to continue in 2021.”

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Balanced market to prevail, prices to rise 5%

RE/MAX is forecasting continuing balanced conditions for the Oakville housing market in 2020, which is expected to prevail in 2020 due to no economic changes. The average residential sale price is expected to rise by five per cent. The anticipated price increase is being attributed to low inventory and a strong buyer pool in the region.

Currently there are three months of inventory in the Oakville housing market, but as we move into 2020 this should increase.

Move-up homebuyers will continue to drive demand for homes in 2020. There is no single “hot neighbourhood” in Oakville that is selling faster than others. This market consistency is expected to continue in 2020.

Oakville’s luxury housing market continues to thrive, with home sales being propelled by move-up and out-of-area buyers. Growth of this property segment is expected to continue in 2020 due to the high liveability of the region and the continuing trend of migration from urban city centres such as Toronto, into suburban cities like Oakville.

From a national perspective, RE/MAX anticipates a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Healthy price increases are expected, with an estimated 3.7-per-cent increase in the average national residential sales price, according to the RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report.

Most individual markets surveyed across Canada experienced moderate price increases year-over-year from 2018 to 2019. However, some regions in Ontario continue to experience higher-than-normal gains, including London (+10.7 per cent), Windsor (+11 per cent), Ottawa (+11.7 per cent) and Niagara (+12.9 per cent).

“Southern Ontario is witnessing some incredibly strong price appreciation, with many regions seeing double-digit gains,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Thanks to the region’s resilient economy, staggering population growth and relentless development, the 2020 market looks very optimistic.”