Tariff Threat Pushes New Listings Up, Sidelines Homebuyers

If you noticed more “For Sale” signs cropping up in your neighbourhood last month, it’s not just you. In its January report, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) noted an influx of new listings coming on stream, with the tariff threat being a key factor in the trend.

We saw an 11-per-cent increase in new supply posted to Canadian MLS Systems in January compared to December – the largest seasonally adjusted monthly increase in new listings since the late 1980s, outside of the impacts of COVID-19. Year-over-year, listings were up 12.7 per cent. By the end of January, there were 136,000 properties listed on the MLS – a healthy increase, but still below the long-term average for this time of the year, which is around 160,000 listings. Meanwhile, home sales were down 3.3 per cent month-over-month, a trend that largely transpired in the final week of January, before the US and Canadian governments agreed to delay deployment of tariffs on both sides. Whew.

However, any perceived relief was short-lived, with President Trump signing executive orders to impose the 25-per-cent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., starting March 12. In addition, the March 4 deadline looms of a 25-per-cent tariff on all Canadian imports including lumber, and a 10-per-cent tariff on Canadian oil.

The tariffs introduced by Trump in the U.S. have a 30-day respite but still loom large over the Canadian economic landscape, with the most significant trade war in the history of the two allied nations a distinct possibility. The impact to Canadian businesses and jobs is expected to be significant. It has the potential to re-introduce significant inflationary pressures to the economies of the Americas (Canada, the U.S. and Mexico). Furthermore, tariffs would be likely to increase construction costs and serve to slow building activity in Canada even further, tightening the nation’s already woefully inadequate housing supply. Prices for new construction would also climb.

In a televised press conference in Montreal today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is focused on ensuring the U.S. doesn’t make good on its tariff threat. “If ever there are tariffs brought in Canada, our response will be immediate and strong, but we don’t want that. We are going to do the work to make sure they don’t come on.”

Despite the ongoing efforts, we’re starting to see impacts on the housing market on our side of the border.

“The standout trends to begin the year were a big jump in new supply at an uncommon time of year, as well as a weakening in sales which only showed up around the last week of January,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “The timing of that change in demand leaves little doubt as to the cause – uncertainty around tariffs. Together with higher supply, this means markets that had been steadily tightening up since last fall are now suddenly in a softer pricing situation again, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario.”

On a year-over-year basis, January home sales edged up 2.9 per cent while average price saw a 1.1-per-cent bump, bringing it to $670,064.

With sales down and supply up, Canada’s sales-to-new listings ratio now sits at 49.3 per cent, down from the mid- to high-50s we experienced at the end of 2024, and consistent with conditions typical of a balanced market.

“While we continue to anticipate a more active spring for the housing sector, the threat of a trade war with our largest trading partner is a major dark cloud on the horizon,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “While uncertainty about the economy and jobs will no doubt keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, a softer pricing environment alongside lower interest rates will be an opportunity for others.”

If you’re ready to jump on that opportunity, an experienced real estate agent can help you navigate the ups and downs of the process.