Toronto Real Estate: Inflation, Immigration and the Missing Middle

The Toronto real estate market is likely to feel the impact of the rising cost of living, increased demand from a growing population, unemployment status, the mortgage stress test and housing diversification as it relates to “the missing middle.” With the higher cost of living hobbling first-time homebuyers’ capacity to buy, rental prices are also hitting new highs. When it comes to immigration, Canada is rightly welcoming record numbers of new Canadians. However, the added demand is expected to drive up both residential sale and rental prices unless more housing inventory is added to the market.

However, amid a fluctuating economic environment, Canadian homebuyers and sellers are optimistic that 2023 could yield a more-balanced market, according to RE/MAX Canada’s 2023 Industry Trends Report. The report examines key economic and transactional trends that are likely to impact Canadian homebuyers and sellers, and the broader real estate industry this year.

“Rising interest rates, inflation and a precarious economy have been a topic of discussion for more than a year now, but what remains the most pressing and elusive trend is our chronic lack of housing inventory across Canada, especially in larger urban centres such as the GTA,” says Cameron Forbes, broker, RE/MAX Realtron. “We need our municipal, provincial and federal politicians to collaborate more strategically and creatively to address the problem, or risk it overshadowing the market until we come to responsible and sustainable solutions that will actually deliver.”

Other key trends:

• Location is likely to remain a key driver of demand in the GTA. Prime locations such as the core and vicinity of Yonge and Bloor are unlikely to experience significant price and demand decreases.
• Areas/cities that do not offer diversity in liveability (access to transportation, green space, walkability, access to restaurants/shopping etc.) are more likely to see a decrease in demand.
• Interest rates rising have provided a much-needed price adjustment in the GTA that has allowed many move-up and investment buyers to benefit – particularly those that are making moves from city cores to surrounding areas like Markham, Richmond Hill, Pickering and Ajax.

3 Tips for Toronto Real Estate Buyers:

• Fewer competitors does not mean a lower or uncertified deposit; a strong, certified deposit continues to be extremely important to demonstrate the strength of a homebuyer’s offer and that they have the financial ability to close the purchase and sale.
• Homes in most market areas of the GTA that are priced correctly, will continue to generate multiple offers, highlighting the importance of getting a mortgage commitment and inspection done in advance of the offer to be able to put the best foot forward in any competition and market conditions.
• Availability alongside an agent to present an offer in person is always a good idea. Sellers will notice the difference and it often gives the homebuyer a leg up to act more quickly with the Realtor than others to win the competition!

3 Tips for Sellers in the Toronto Housing Market:

• The first half of the year is more likely to offer favourable conditions to sellers, due less competition and economic headwinds expected in the second half of 2023.
• As a seller, it is important to focus on the difference in value between the property being sold and purchased; great opportunities exist to “move-up” when making the switch between many markets and properties (I.e. moving from a condo in Downtown Toronto to a detached house in Hamilton)
• Staging homes continues to be a best practice with significant impact across all markets.