Winnipeg to continue as seller’s market in 2021, prices to increase 3%

Winnipeg real estate is likely to continue as a seller’s market in 2021, with an uptick of activity anticipated as many home sellers that were initially hesitant to sell during the pandemic are reassessing their financial situation and are anticipated to decide on up or downsizing in the new year. The average sales price in Winnipeg increased by 4% to $283,652 in 2020 (Jan. 1 – Oct.31), compared to $271,652 in 2019 (Jan. 1 – Dec. 31). The RE/MAX Outlook for Winnipeg real estate in 2021 is an increase of 3% in average price to approximately $291,976.16.

Who’s Driving Demand for Winnipeg Real Estate?

Move-over buyers are currently driving demand in the Winnipeg real estate market, which is expected to continue into 2021. The most popular property type with move-over buyers are single-detached homes.

First-time homebuyers in Winnipeg are typically young couples looking for single-detached homes. These properties range in price from $300,00 to $400,00. Bidding wars have continued to impact both first-time homebuyers as well as move-up buyers from entering the market. Moving into 2021, it may be easier for first-time homebuyers to enter the market, as people will not be in such a panic to move as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.

Move-up buyers in the Winnipeg housing market are typically families, and many have decided to wait on entering the market if their current home continues to meet their needs. This results in a lack of urgency to move.

The condominium market in Winnipeg is most popular with single homebuyers and young couples, with the average price for a condominium in Winnipeg being $241,785. The current condo market in Winnipeg is better than it has been in a while but is still slower than the detached home market. This is expected to continue into 2021.

Winnipeg’s luxury market is currently driven by move-up buyers, with the average starting price for a luxury home in Winnipeg being $500,000. Due to COVID-19, it is taking a little longer for luxury homes to sell, but it is hopeful that this is only a short-term impact on the luxury market in Winnipeg.

Winnipeg’s Hottest Neighbourhoods

Winnipeg’s top-selling neighbourhoods in 2020 were River Heights, St. James and Cresentwood. These neighbourhoods are expected to continue to be popular in 2021 as they offer large properties with more outdoor space and good price points.

Winnipeg New-Home Construction

It is believed that Winnipeg’s new-home construction sales have increased as the gap has been bridged in terms of price point between what resale is being bid up to and what you can purchase a new home for. The current number of homes being constructed in Winnipeg is sufficient to meet the current demand.

Canadian Housing Market in 2021

Canadians are on the move. RE/MAX isn’t calling this an “exodus,” but the re-location trend across the Canadian housing market is real, and it’s just one focus of the RE/MAX 2021 Housing Market Outlook Report. RE/MAX Canada anticipates healthy housing price growth at the national level, with move-up and move-over buyers continuing to drive activity in many regions across the Canadian housing market. An ongoing and widespread housing supply shortage is likely to continue, presenting challenges for homebuyers and putting upward pressure on prices.

Due to these factors, the 2021 RE/MAX 2021 outlook for average residential prices is an estimate of +4% to +6% nation-wide. Here’s the regional break-down:

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Additional report findings include:

  • 35% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that “move-over” buyers from other cities and provinces will continue to spark market activity in 2021
  • 45% of RE/MAX brokers indicate that move-up buyers will likely be a primary driver of the housing market demand in 2021
  • Half of Canadians (53%) are confident that Canada’s housing markets will remain steady in 2021
  • 52% of Canadians believe real estate will remain one of the best investment options in 2021

“Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “While we’ve seen a significant shift in buyer preferences this year, we believe factors such as the supply issue, pent-up demand and historically lower interest rates will continue to fuel activity in 2021.”

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While the Winnipeg housing market remained strong in the first two weeks of March, the region saw a decline in home sales between April and May due to COVID-19 lockdowns. However, activity bounced back by the end of June and into July, paving the way for recovery in the region.

With low inventory and pent-up demand, prices for both single detached homes and condominiums have increased by 5% between Q2 and the beginning of Q3. Consumer confidence remains high in the region, and prices are expected to remain stable, with a 2% increase in prices for all property types expected in Winnipeg, Manitoba for the remainder of the year.

Western Canada

While COVID-19 lockdowns in March and April slowed down the housing market in Western Canada, transactions in Kelowna, Saskatoon and Vancouver resumed by May, with sales in both May and June surpassing year-over-year levels. Many buyers put their plans on hold at the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns, but they returned to the market quickly to make up for lost time. Edmonton’s housing market quickly bounced back to pre-COVID levels in June, while Saskatoon experienced its busiest June in years; this momentum is anticipated to continue into the fall market, with  RE/MAX brokers and agents estimating a three-per-cent increase in average residential sale prices for the remainder of the year. Overall, brokers and agents in Western Canada say the potential buyers they are talking to are not too concerned with a potential second wave of COVID-19 impacting their real estate journey, and RE/MAX brokers are estimating steady activity to round out 2020.

Canadian Housing Market Heat Map Fall 2020

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Canadian Housing Market Outlook

Leading indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada’s housing market point to a strong market for the remainder of 2020. According to the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers suggest that the average residential sale price in Canada could increase by 4.6% during the remainder of the year. This is compared to the 3.7% increase that was predicted in late 2019.

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The pandemic has prompted many Canadians to reassess their living situations. According to a survey conducted by Leger on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 32% of Canadians no longer want to live in large urban centres, and instead would opt for rural or suburban communities. This trend is stronger among Canadians under the age of 55 than those in the 55+ age group.

Not only are Canadians more motivated to leave cities, but changes in work and life dynamics have also shifted their needs and wants for their homes. According to the survey, 44% of Canadians would like a home with more space for personal amenities, such as a pool, balcony or a large yard.

Canadians equally split on their confidence in the housing market

Canadians are almost equally split in their confidence in Canada’s real estate market, with 39% as confident as they were prior to the pandemic, and 37% slightly less confident. When it comes to the prospect of a second wave of COVID-19, 56% of Canadians who are feeling confident in Canada’s real estate market are still likely to buy or sell.

“While COVID-19 lockdowns slowed Canada’s housing market at the start of a typically busy spring market, activity bounced back by early summer in many regions, including Vancouver and Toronto,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “Despite the tragic impacts of the pandemic, our optimism in the strength of Canada’s housing market has always remained, and current market activity further exemplifies this. Many homebuyers are now exploring different neighbourhoods that better suit their new lifestyles, and real estate agents are getting busier and working more with buyers from different major cities.  According to our brokers and agents across the RE/MAX network, Canada’s fall market is expected to see spring market-like activity.”

Additional highlights from the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report Survey:

  • 48% of Canadians would like to live closer to green spaces
  • 48% of Canadians say it’s more important than ever to live in a community close to hospitals and clinics
  • 33% of Canadians would like more square footage in their home and have realized they need more space
  • 44% of Canadians want a home with more outdoor space and personal amenities (i.e. balcony, pool etc.)

About the 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report

The 2020 RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report includes data and insights supplied by RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments.

The Winnipeg housing market is currently balanced, which is expected to prevail in 2020 as a result of reasonable prices and an ample supply of inventory. The average residential sale price expectation for Winnipeg in 2020 is +2% due to a modest increase in commercial development.

Currently there are 4 months of inventory left and in 2020 this should remain the same. The most popular type of properties are two-story detached homes and 2020 will see a shift of more new Canadians looking for homes in Winnipeg. The condo market is primarily driven by single millennials and retirees who are looking for townhouses with two or more bedrooms.

The hottest neighborhood in 2020 will be Amber Gates due to new development in the area, including a new school and more commercial properties. Winnipeg will see the luxury and condo markets remain steady in 2020, with move up and first-time home buyers driving demand.

From a national perspective, RE/MAX anticipates a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian housing market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Healthy price increases are expected, with an estimated 3.7-per-cent increase in the average national residential sales price.

As more Canadians have adjusted to the mortgage stress test and older Millennials move into their peak earning years, it is anticipated that they will drive the market in 2020, particularly single Millennials and young couples. A recent Leger survey conducted by RE/MAX found that more than half (51 per cent) of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years, especially those under the age of 45.

Click to read the full RE/MAX 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report.

Learn more about RE/MAX real estate franchise opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Region and Western Canada.

Learn more about RE/MAX real estate franchise opportunities in Ontario-Atlantic Region and Western Canada.