Nova Scotia vs. New Brunswick: Where is the Best Location to Buy Real Estate?

Is the Atlantic Canada real estate market weathering the storm in the Canadian housing sector, and for those considering making the move, what is the best location to buy real estate here?

The latest data suggest that the eastern provinces are surviving and, depending on what markets you are placing a magnifying glass over, are thriving. Although sales activity is not what it was just a year ago, prices have remained upward. But, of course, this does not mean they are experiencing meteoric growth resulting in an affordability crisis.

A new trend was born in the last couple of years: inter-provincial migration to the eastern seaboard. Indeed, for decades, people had been fleeing provinces like New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island (PEI). However, during the 2020-2021 housing boom, many households chose to plant new roots in Atlantic Canada, allowing the real estate market to pop and the economy to flourish.

Statistics Canada has yet to release some of the latest to show if families from places like British Columbia or Ontario are still relocating to Nova Scotia or Newfoundland and Labrador. But if they are, many will be wondering what the best place would be to purchase a residential property moving forward.

A common debate that people have is whether Nova Scotia is the better province or New Brunswick. Perhaps the answer to this discussion is to look at the recent housing data and forecasts.

Nova Scotia vs. New Brunswick: Where is the Best Location to Buy Real Estate?

Homebuyers are not a monolith. They all desire something unique from the home purchasing process. Some seek a cheaper home, while others want a great community and terrific scenery.

Well, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have all of the above, especially on the issue of affordability.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose at an annualized rate of 5.8 per cent to $265,800, according to the New Brunswick Real Estate Association. However, the average price of homes sold in December slipped by slightly more than one per cent year-over-year to $264,402.

Here is a breakdown of prices and properties:

• Single-Family Homes: +5.4 per cent to $265,900
• Townhomes: +18.4 per cent to $252,600
• Apartments: +20.1 per cent to $262,900

Despite the modest gains in the overall New Brunswick real estate market, supply remains a significant issue.

New residential listings fell 16.4 per cent year-over-year, with 403 units, which is 13.5 per cent below the five-year average. Active residential listings surged 22.5 per cent from December 2021 to 2,114 units but were also nearly 30 per cent below the five-year average. Months of inventory, which measures the number of months it would take to exhaust current levels of supply based on the current pace of sales activity, rose from 2.5 to 4.7. However, this is significantly below the long-run average of 10.9 months for this time of the year.

Now, what about the Nova Scotia real estate market?

New data from the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS® (NSAR) found that the benchmark price for a home in the province gained six per cent year-over-year to $369,000. However, the average price of homes sold in Nova Scotia tumbled by 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $362,966.

Here is also a breakdown of prices and properties:

• Single-Family Homes: +5.7 per cent to $362,100
• Townhomes: +19 per cent to $478,400
• Apartments: +6.4 per cent to $423,800

Like New Brunswick, the Nova Scotia real estate market is going through supply challenges.

New listings plunged by more than 13 per cent, totalling 505 new units, which is the lowest addition in more than 15 years. New listings were also 15.5 per cent below the five-year average. Active residential listings increased by nearly 28 per cent, with 2,200 units on the market. Still, they were 34.5 per cent below the five-year average. Months of inventory advanced from two to 3.7, which was also below the long-run average of 10.5 months.

New housing construction activity has slowed in Nova Scotia. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), housing starts slipped 1.47 per cent in the first 11 months of 2022 to 4,485 units. By comparison, new housing construction levels in New Brunswick have been robust. CMHC statistics revealed that housing starts surged 34 per cent to 4,030 units compared to the same time a year ago.

Where Are Prices Headed in 2023?

Will prices start coming down in the Atlantic Canada real estate market, or will they defy the broader Canadian housing market and maintain their upward trajectory?

According to the RE/MAX 2023 Canadian Housing Market Outlook, the Halifax real estate sector is poised to post eight per cent sale price growth this year. However, the Moncton and Fredericton real estate markets are forecast to post price drops of five per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.

“Halifax is expected to see strong investor activity in 2023 as prices and returns are still attractive, especially compared to other major cities across the country. Amidst inflation, a looming recession and continued adjustments to interest rates, the year is expected to start slow, but pick up its pace in the second half of 2023,” said Ryan Hartlen, broker of RE/MAX Nova, in the report.

Overall, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have plenty of housing options this year.