A Look at Saskatchewan Real Estate in 2024

The Saskatchewan real estate market may be the envy of Canada as it enjoys a blend of robust sales activity and healthy price growth. In fact, the Prairie province is one of the most affordable housing markets in the entire country.

Of course, like the rest of the Canadian real estate market, Saskatchewan is experiencing different challenges, from higher interest rates to smaller inventories to lacklustre new housing construction activity.

So, how has the Saskatchewan housing market performed as of late?

According to the Saskatchewan Realtors Association (SRA), home sales advanced 11 per cent year-over-year, totalling 1,259 units in October. Residential property transactions were also 13 per cent above the long-term average for this time of the year.

The benchmark sales price for a home in Saskatchewan was up close to two percent on an annualized basis, topping $327,000.

Housing stocks plummeted 15 per cent from the same time a year ago and were more than 30 per cent below the ten-year average. The drop in new residential listings resulted in Saskatchewan witnessing months of inventory sliding below five. This represented a 23 per cent year-over-year decline and 40 per cent below the ten-year average. Overall, this is the tightest Saskatchewan housing market since 2007.

New housing construction activity was roughly flat, with housing starts coming in at 330 in October and year-to-date housing starts staying above 3,300, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

How Does 2024 Look for Saskatchewan Real Estate?

A Look at Saskatchewan Real Estate in 2024

Market conditions are expected to be mixed next year, according to the RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook report.

In Saskatoon, prices are forecast to rise two percent to nearly $384,000, while sales volumes are projected to be unchanged. In Regina, the 2024 price estimate is anticipated to drop two percent to close to $301,000, and sales activity is predicted to slide two percent.

Like the rest of the Canadian real estate market, supplies and interest rates are anticipated to be the dominant factors in the 2024 Saskatchewan real estate market.

A new provincial economic forecast from TD Economics suggests that the Saskatchewan economy is projected to rise by 1.5 per cent (real GDP) and 3.8 per cent (nominal GDP) in 2024. The unemployment rate is predicted to climb to 5.5 per cent.

“Weaker-than-expected production estimates for key crops and potash are the main culprits driving a 1.1 percentage point markdown to Saskatchewan’s 2023 GDP growth,” a team of economists wrote in a research note. “This downgrade is the largest amongst provinces and brings this year’s GDP estimate to 1.3%, roughly in line with the national average. An underperforming labour market is also adding fuel to the fire, as tepid employment growth this year has translated to relatively weak consumer spending. That said, we expect activity to bounce back in 2024, pushing up Saskatchewan to the top of the provincial growth charts.”

Meanwhile, looking at some of the Saskatchewan housing market trends, three main factors could continue from 2023:

• First-time homebuyers acquiring single-detached homes and condominiums with two and three bedrooms.
• Retiring Baby Boomers looking to downsize from their large homes and relocate to condos.
• Interprovincial migration, particularly by families from British Columbia and Ontario, will drive the luxury home market thanks to the equity accumulation from the 2020-2021 housing boom.

Ultimately, it will all come down to how the Bank of Canada (BoC) will craft monetary policy in 2024. Will the monetary authorities cut interest rates? Will policymakers leave rates higher for longer? How will the Canadian economy respond to the cumulative effects of the central bank’s tightening? These questions – and then some! – could dictate how Saskatchewan and the broader Canadian real estate market function going forward.